Thursday, February 10, 2011

Patience is Money

In contrary to what most people would suggest that this is the best time to invest in mutual funds because the NAVPS is going down, obviously, the facts say other things. The chart below shows that PHISIX continues to sink and today it was worse than most people could think. PHISIX dropped by 105.06 points or -2.73% to 3,738.31. PHISIX is projected to drop down to as low as 3,600 before it bounces back and 138.31 points is still a long way to go. If PHISIX will drop approximately 140 points, that is a significant drop in mutual funds NAVPS.


Though mutual fund companies invest in other securities such as bonds, a large chunk of their portfolio belongs to the stock market (maybe even more than FOREX). Mutual fund companies invest/trade millions in a particular stock and by millions I mean tens or even hundreds of millions. So if the market goes down, a large part of the mutual funds' portfolio goes down as well, thus it makes some perfect sense as to why the NAVPS goes down with the PHISIX.

Apparently, this is a situation where "time" is not your ally in investing but rather "timing". Why timing? Here's an illustration about time vs timing:

Person A and person B both have P50,000 to invest. Person A thinks that the earlier he invests, the greater his gains is going to be so he didn't care about the market status and went on to invest on a mutual fund company for a NAVPS worth P5 per share. Person B on the other hand thinks that both time and timing are essential thus he studied the market behavior and waited patiently for his entry. Person B knows that PHISIX is sinking and all technical analysis, fundamentals, and sentiments aren't looking good so he kept his hard earned money at hand and timed his opportunity. A month later, PHISIX showed some signs of life and Person B invested on the same mutual fund as Person A did but for NAVPS that is now worth P4.50.

So who got more? Person A invested P50,000 at P5 per share and got 10,000 shares, person B who timed his entry invested the same amount but at P4.50 per share and got 11,111 shares. Assuming that the NAVPS went up to P10 per share after 10 years and both never added any amount to their investments, Person A will get P100,000 or doubled his money. Person B on the other hand gets P111,110 after 10 years.

Why did investing without timing work against Person A? Because during the time that the market went down his investments never grew and in fact it lost some of it's value. Of course optimism and conventional knowledge will tell that it will recover and grow in time but in comparison to Person B, Person A got lesser shares for the same amount (you want more shares at cheaper price don't you?). Realize what difference timing could make?

Be a little patient. You don't have to be an expert in reading/interpreting/analyzing charts or know each and every news there is. A little diligence and effort is more than enough. Give the market some of your time, effort, and attention and it will become your friend. It will significantly increase your odds.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

PHISIX: Good Times Ahead?

From an Elliott Wave Theory analysis point of view, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PHISIX) is wave 5 bound sooner or later. Elliott Wave Theory says that it takes five waves for the market to reverse it's trend, three waves going the direction of the trend while two going reverse.

The chart below shows that PHISIX is already in wave 4 (from 2009 reference) and should the trend continue, wave five is just around the corner. The two boxes are the two uptrends (value of PHISIX going up) and those that are encircled are reversal points where the value of PHISIX stopped going down and resumed an uptrend.

The second circle (right side) signifies that PHISIX is already on a downtrend (value of PHISIX going down) and according to Elliott Wave Theory, this is the fourth wave.

How significant is wave 4? Wave 4 signifies that a corrective wave is coming sooner or later thus PHISIX will once again start to go up. This is a time for traders and investors alike to keep a very close eye on the market because PHISIX will start to go up once again in no time.

However, be a little bit cautious as some bad news are looming around the corner. London based Barclays Capital reported that RP's inflation rate might exceed 4.5% by 2011, not a really good value if you ask me. It might make investors cover because it will make the value of their investments smaller.

Summing it up, PHISIX looks promising technically but it will take a matter of time to see if bad news could shake it fundamentally. Be a little more patient and vigilant. Good times could just be around the corner and it brings with it some serious growth and by serious, that means somewhere around 40% to as far as 100% for the year.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Common Financial Misconceptions in the Philippines

Financial literacy is still in it's infancy in the Philippines. The mindset of most Filipinos towards finances are bent towards the opposite way, a way going against building a solid financial foundation. Here are some of the most common misconceptions towards finances of most Filipinos:

1.) The meaning of assets.

What most people think: What they own are assets. Ownership.

What an asset really means: An asset is something that brings money into the pocket.

Two of the most common examples of this is owning a car and a house. A car and a house draws money out fast: fuel, maintenance, repairs, estate taxes, etc.. If you get caught up in the idea that owning these are turning them into assets, you'll be financially drained faster than you could ever think of. What turns these into assets depends on how you use them, not by merely owning them.

Knowing what asset really is could spell the difference in building a strong financial foundation and going down the drain.

2.) The concept of saving.

What most people think: Save to spend

What saving should be: Save to invest

How many people have you heard say that they are going to save up for a vacation, a gadget, or just clothes? Probably a lot. But have you ever heard somebody say that he's going to save up for emergency fund, insurance, and investment? Not that many. Ironic as it may seem but people save just to spend it later on.

Saving is not about accumulating money for something but rather either accumulating money for the rainy days or make money grow.

3.) Spending and ego.

What most people think: Who spends more is richer.

How should it be: Who saves more is richer.

Everybody wants to be rich or at least have more than enough to live a comfortable life. For many people, having more than enough is not enough. They want to show it off and feed their egos buy spending to show everybody that they have money. Spending is a habit and once it goes unchecked, it is stronger than controlling it.

Take care of the needs, put off the wants. Obviously your financial security is more important than feeding your ego.

4.) My grandpa's advice.

What most people think: What worked decades before still works now.

What works now: Information and adaptability

A very common example is putting money in the bank. Many people still think that by putting money in the bank it will grow, worse, some even think that putting money in the bank is investing. Banks work decades before because the interest rates are higher than the inflation rates. Inflation rates are higher tenfold than bank interest rates now.

Gone are the days where money grows in the bank. Several financial institutions are giving better returns than banks. Most of the people who made it big in this generation are people who were innovative and imaginative, not the kind of people who were stuck in the things of the past.

Financial literacy still has a very long way to go in the Philippines. Invest in knowledge, it is your greatest asset.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

How Deep Will PHISIX Go?

Apparently the reported 7.3% GDP and 7.2% GNP of the Philippines didn't help. PHISIX continues to go down amidst the positive news. The series of bad news (Makati bus bombing, China's inflation rate at 3.3%, and the chaos at Egypt) have done more damage than the positive news of the Philippine economy.

The graph below shows that PHISIX has already broken its somewhat strong uptrend support at 4000.


Encircled is supposed to be PHISIX's uptrend support at 4000 which was broken early January. Several supports were pegged but to no avail, PHISIX continues to dive deep.

BDO projected that PHISIX might go down to as low as 3600 for the year. 3600 is a really deep dive but with the looks of it, there is a very strong chance.

Now what if PHISIX sinks down to 3600, is it a good thing or bad? It's good if you ask me. PHISIX being down means other stocks are down, their values are cheaper (the value of stocks brings PHISIX down in the first place). It cuts in all angles for everybody because:

[1] It gives the perfect entry to the stock market. Stocks are cheap hence more volume could be bought.

[2] It gives traders and investors an opportunity to cover their losses when PHISIX went down.

[3] It gives a better room for growth. The deeper the hole, the higher the climb. 3600 is deep and there's a long way to go up.

How far will PHISIX continue to go? Nobody knows. But as far as the market behavior is concerned, it will continue to go down. Now is not the right time to invest. Experienced traders and investors say that late February or the month of March is a very good time to invest or trade. It's wise to take such advise.

Monday, January 31, 2011

Mutual Funds: When is the Best Time to Invest?

"When is the best time to invest?". It is a question that I hear almost everyday mostly from people who either are investing in mutual funds or are planning to invest in one.

The idea of cost averaging have captivated many people and in fact it has fostered the mindset that "anytime" is the right time to invest. But for me, cost averaging is not enough.

In cost averaging, time is the most important part in investing. The earlier you start, the lesser the risk, and the greater the chances of the returns. However, cost averaging says nothing about entries and exits which in my opinion are very important. Time and timing are actually the keys in making a successful trade and investment if you want to maximize your profits.

Cost averaging is nothing more than speculation. It is no different in depositing in a savings account. Speculation if you ask me is not investing, it is investing blindly. Though it's true that mutual funds offer way better interests/gains than bank deposits, be aware that mutual funds are investments and investments needs investigation, not speculation.

So going back to the question "when is the best time to invest?", my answer is wait until PHISIX hits a low or in a technical lingo, a support. The Philippine Stock Exchange heavily influences financial institutions in the Philippines be it stocks, bonds, and other forms of securities. If the PHISIX (Philippine Stock Market Index) goes down, almost everything goes down as well.

As of this moment, PHISIX is going down and breaking supports. How low will it go, we still don't know. PHISIX have already broken the 4000 support and is heading down to 3800. The bombing incident in Makati, China's reported 3.3% inflation rate, and the turmoil in Egypt are not helping thus we could expect PHISIX to go further down.

In the graph below, the straight line shows the support that PHISIX is resting to as of the moment. It is inclining going down thus it is indeed going down. So is "anytime" the best time to invest? The chart says otherwise. Does it make sense to invest into something that is going down? I don't think so. Wait for it to hit it's lowest and reverse. You want a bargain don't you? A stock at it's cheapest and more volume?

The lines in the two boxes (next graph) is PHISIX's performance for the past two years. Elliot's Wave Theory says that before a major reversal, a stock goes through 5 waves. The boxed data shows that PHISIX have already gone through waves one to four and wave 5 is possibly coming. Is it good news? Yes indeed. Wave 5 is an uptrend but when will it happen? We don't know. The downtrend could continue and a reversal could happen anytime.

The third graph shows PHISIX's performance from 2002 to 2010. As far as the graph is concerned, PHISIX is still on it's long term uptrend on wave 3 meaning that there is still a lot more room to grow. Wave 2 (downtrend) happened during the so called economic crisis. What comes down always comes back up so after the big dip in 2008, that gave a lot of height to climb in the following years. PhilEquity rode PHISIX's wave 1 as well as the steep climb after the economic meltdown. It's NAVPS grew from barely a peso in 1995 to about P20 in 2010, roughly 2000% increase in 15 years.

Knowing the market behavior is essential in investing. It eliminates false hopes that the market is going up and much more, take away the idea that mutual funds are some sort of magic wand that could give instant riches long term. Knowing that PHISIX is bound to reach greater heights in the years to come is not much of our concern as of the moment. What we should know is when to time our entry to have a good chance of gaining more. Never trade/invest against the trend, you can never outsmart the market.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

How to Build the Right Financial Foundation

The dilemma that most people are facing are related to finances. Financial literacy weren't taught in schools and most of the things that we know now when it comes to finances are things that are being brought down from our parent's grandparents, the information is outdated!

Just like building a strong house, building the right financial foundation requires the right steps and tools. A house whose base and foundation is poorly built will soon topple down, just like a financial foundation that is poorly implemented.

The key in building a good financial foundation is not earning more nor finding more sources of income but rather in knowing the essential steps in building wealth. Many people who are earning well end up either struggling to make ends meet, broke, or down in debt because they failed to establish the right financial foundation. Without a good financial plan, a person could set the wrong priorities for his/her finances.

Knowledge is what separates the wealthy from the middle class and the poor. Studies have shown that wealthy people have basically the same financial framework (same as a house's blueprint). They may be technically different in their approaches but they follow the same principles.

Want to know how the wealthy do their finances? Here are the six very basics steps on how to build a strong financial foundation:

1.) Health care - Getting sick is very costly and is one of the top reasons why people get financially drained. Health care gives reasonable premiums for huge amount of benefits when the policy holder gets sick thus protecting savings and investments from being used up to cover for the expenses.

2.) Insurance - Insurance provides a measure of financial support when the bread winner/policy holder gets incapacitated or dies. Like health care, insurance premiums comes in reasonable and gives huge sums to cover the income generating capacity of the insured. Though it is not enough to cover the emotional burden, at least it is good enough to give peace of mind that those who are left behind are in good hands financially.

3.) Debt Elimination - There are two types of debt: good debt and bad debt. Good debt is a debt that could generate better finances such as loans to start a business or for investments. Bad debts are income or asset pulling debts. Debts, be it good or bad, are borrowed money that should be repaid. At this point, both good and bad debts should be eliminated and avoided. Good debts are better off after step 5.

4.) Emergency Fund - Emergency funds are for, as the name suggests, emergency. It's an amount of money that should be liquid and accessible as it is the money you'll get and use when the need arises (key word is need, not wants). The suggested amount of emergency funds is equal to at least ten times one's salary or monthly income.

5.) Investments - Investments are intended for long term and should never be touched when sudden need arises (emergency funds will take care of that). Several investment channels are mutual funds, UITFs, real estate, stocks and other securities, and even starting a business (traditional or digital).

6.) Estate preservation - Estate preservation is a plan to create more wealth, make existing investments grow, or transfer wealth during your lifetime or after your death. Estate preservation keeps your investments and savings from falling down due to lack or poor planning.

Summing everything up, the flow should go like this:

1.) Health care and insurance should come first as it would serve as a coverage for somebody who builds his/her financial foundation. Just in case whatever may happen, at least a financial support is at hand.

2.) The habit of saving is very important in eliminating debt and/or building an emergency fund. Develop the habit of saving and never think of loans (debt) as a solution for debt. Without the habit of saving, eliminating debt and building up an emergency fund would be an enormous task. Debt elimination comes in first because emergency funds is not intended to pay off debt. Get rid of debt.

3.) Investments takes time to build so it should come last. Invest with spare money or money that you can afford to "lose", emergency funds are there just in case the endeavor turns sour. Start small and learn consistently. Mutual funds and UITF are ideal for those who are testing the waters of investments.

Building a strong financial foundation isn't that complicated but it takes time to build. Start now, start young, tomorrow is already too late.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

The Biggest Money Mistakes Couples Make

Managing your own money is hard enough; add another person to the equation and it becomes an obstacle course: Does it make sense to combine bank accounts after moving in together? Should you pay off your credit card debt before getting married? Does the higher earner need to cover more of the bills?

Here are six common mistakes that couples make with their money--and how to avoid them, adapted from the new book Generation Earn: The Young Professional's Guide to Spending, Investing, and Giving Back.

Not talking about finances.

Sure, discussing who pays for what and how much debt each person brings into the relationship is awkward--but also necessary. Before moving in together, talk about how you plan to share household expenses, whether the person with the higher salary will contribute more, how much credit card debt you have, and how you plan to share big-ticket items like cars. Also, take time to map out the logistics: Will you pay bills out of one shared bank account? Or keep all your money separate?

Don't forget to bring up your long-term goals, too, which can make the discussion a little more romantic. Do you want to swim with dolphins in the Bahamas? Or backpack around Europe together? Agreeing on common goals makes it easier to save.

Combining accounts too early.

Putting all your money into one account might be the more romantic option (and prevent any debate over who picks up the tab at dinner), but it can also cause major problems in the event of a breakup. Couples who live together without first walking down the aisle face financial vulnerabilities with joint accounts that married couples don't.

Investments in shared assets, such as a home or car, can be lost during a messy breakup if only one person's name is on the title. Money or labor that went into redoing a former partner's kitchen may never be recouped. And while details vary by state, even assets such as joint savings accounts can go to the person who is first to make the withdrawal. Legalities aside, a lot of couples say they like the independence of having two accounts anyway, at least before they decide they've found their permanent soul mate.

Sharing credit cards, real estate, and other types of debt.

If you add your partner's name to the title of your home, then they own it, too--even if you paid for the down payment and mortgage. "I see it happening too often--a couple gets together, says 'I love you, let's set up house and make this official'. . . and then [one person] signs away half of their equity," says Sheryl Garrett, a certified financial planner based in Shawnee Mission, Kansas, and author of Money Without Matrimony. Couples also need to talk about who would get the first opportunity to purchase the house if they were to break up, at what price would they sell it, and how many days they would have to refinance the mortgage in their own name.

Signing on to someone's car loan or credit card can create similar problems. If you break-up and the other person fails to make their payments, then you're on the hook, too. Even if you've long gotten over the relationship, your credit might feel the after-effects for years.

Getting surprised by the marriage penalty.

Newlyweds who earn similar, high salaries often get an unwelcome surprise the year after they get married: They find themselves stuck with a mega-tax bill. That's because the so-called marriage penalty still exists in the upper tax brackets. In 2010, for example, husbands and wives who each earn $68,650 and up in taxable income are at risk for paying more married than they did as singletons.

Earnings above that amount face a 28 percent tax, compared to 25 percent pre-marriage. Couples are most at risk when they bring home similar incomes. (The reverse is also true. When one person in the marriage brings home all or most of the money in a marriage, that couple usually gets a tax break.) The best way to prepare for this unwelcome wedding "gift" is to know it's coming and to deduct more from your salary throughout the year to avoid a large bill on April 15.

Ignoring the risk of a break-up.

Talking about how you would split things up if you decided to go your separate ways can prevent bad surprises later. Unless children or major assets are involved, there's usually no need to hire a lawyer. In fact, you can just write down the answers to these questions along with any others that apply: Who would stay in the apartment? Who would get the cats? The car? If you want to formalize the process, you can pay a nominal fee to download forms, such as a living-together guide and contract, at nolo.com.

Since unmarried couples don't get to argue their case in divorce court, it could be your only protection in place if things go south. (The legal ramifications of common-law marriages, civil unions, and domestic partnerships vary by state.) Couples might also want to consider talking about any debts, past bankruptcy filings, and credit report problems, because even if you're not legally liable for your girlfriend's $50,000 student loan, it could end up affecting your quality of life if 10 percent of the household income goes toward paying it off each month.

Putting one person in charge of money.

It's normal to specialize in relationships--to delegate dinner planning to the best cook, and gardening to the one with a green thumb. But giving one person all of the money management responsibility can lead to an unbalanced relationship.

New York-based relationship therapist Bonnie Eaker Weil explains that no one should ever feel like he or she has to ask permission before buying something. "I call it 'Mother, may I?' You don't want to get into that position where you're the little girl, or you're the little boy, and the other person is your parents. You want to have your own money, and certain things are guilt-free, and you just do what you want with it. If you want to buy a latte, or lipstick, or a facial, you do not have to ask permission, because it's your own money," says Weil. Plus, in the event of a break-up, you want to make sure you know where all your money is and how to manage it.

Source: Yahoo! Finance